2015年3月13日 星期五

Unmet Expectation: Failure of GM Wankel Rotary Engine Innovation (Ver2.0)



Introduction: General Motors & Wankel Rotary Engine

General Motors Company, commonly known as GM, is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Detroit, Michigan, that designs, manufactures, markets and distributes vehicles and vehicle parts and sells financial services. GM produces vehicles in 37 countries under thirteen brands. They led global vehicle sales for 77 consecutive years from 1931 through 2007, longer than any other automaker, and is currently among the world's largest automakers by vehicle unit sales.

The Wankel rotary engine is an innovation in automobile industry. It was started by Lawrence Hargrave who first developed a rotary engine in 1889 using compressed air, intending for it to be used in powered flight. In 1951, Felix Wankel (1902-1988), a German inventor began development of the Rotary Engine at NSU (NSU Motorenwerke AG), where he first conceived his Rotary Engine in 1954 (DKM 54, Drehkolbenmotor) and later the KKM57 (the Wankel rotary engine, Kreiskolbenmotor) in 1957. In the United States, in 1959 under license from NSU, Curtiss-Wright pionnered minor improvements in basic engine design. The design delivers smooth high rpm power from a compact, lightweight engine.

Unlike the conventional internal combustion engine with pistons that move up and down in cylinders, the Wankel has an equilateral triangular orbiting rotor with performs the functions of the combustion engine. The video shows Wankel rotary engine animation (Flyweightnate, 2007).





In concept, a rotary engine is simple. The following video shows how rotary engine works. (ADPTraining, 2011)




Technical Comparison: Reciprocating vs Rotary

Both the external and internal combustion engine use a piston housed in a cylinder which is attached to a connecting rod and then a crankshaft. The piston is forced down the cylinder which pushes on the connecting rod thereby turning the crankshaft. This type of engine is also referred to as a reciprocating engine because of the pistons up and down movement.

In contrast to this engine is the rotary engine which uses a triangular shaped rotor. The rotor is housed in an elliptical shaped chamber and connected to a central main shaft (crankshaft). As the rotor moves around the chamber it draws in an air/fuel mixture, compresses it, burns and then expels it. The movement of the rotor forces the main shaft to rotate.



Advantages
Disadvantages
1. has higher output for similar displacement and physical size.

2. it are considerably simpler and contain far fewer moving parts: A. savings in construction costs; B. much lighter in weight.

4. enhanced reliability by completer removal of this reciprocating stress on internal parts. Its' iron rotor with a housing made of aluminium have greater termal expansion that ensures less overheated.

5. more safety benefit in aircraft use since no valves can burn out.

6. more time to complete the combustion due to a 50% longer stroke duration
1. the fuel-air mixture cannot be pre-stored as there is no intake valve.

2. mover complicated fuel injection technologies.

3. The different in-take times would cause susceptible to pressure loss at low RPM situation.

4. has large fuel consumption because of the combustion chambers in a Wankel engine is quite large.

5. has lower thermal efficiency and less fuel economy.

6. more carbon monoxide and un-burnt hydrocarbons in a Wankel;s exhaust stream because the fuel may get too far from the flame front to fully burned during the combustion.

7. has high local temperature and un-equal thermal expansion because the rotor housing are constantly heated on one side and cooled on the other during combustion

 (Tab 1.1 
Advantages and Disadvantages of Wankel Rotary Engines)

History of GM Wankel Rotary Engine Innovation 


In 1970, General Motors (GM) paid $50 million for initial licenses to produce their own version of the Wankel rotary engine. Initially, R&D of the engine was handled by special product development group at the GM Tech Centre. The Wankel engine has 40 per cent fewer parts and roughly one-third the bulk and weight of a comparable reciprocating engine. (Yoxon, 1999) It had been ever expected in the early 70s to revolutionize the automobile markets and to be one of the most unbelievable fantasies to hit the market. At that time, people appeared ready to go rotary. Investors interpreted clues of which major manufacturers were going up to. They speculated that GM would buy real estate and open a new rotary engine factory. The stocks of GM would have gone up. As many executive predicted, “In ten years, the entire auto industry will be 95 percent rotary.” (Hege, 2011)

In 1972, GM announced that R&D work on rotary engine has progressed to produce a Wankel-powered car. After the announcement, R&D of rotary engine was transferred to Chevrolet motor division with the optimistic target of introduction in 1973.

In August 1972, the Mddle East oil embargo in the autumn of 1973 focused attention on the rotary’s poor fuel economy relative to a comparably sized piston engine. GM engineers later discovered difficulty in meeting Federal emissions standards. (SCMP, 1977)

In 1974, prototypes of Wankel rotary engine were built, but the performance was not inspiring. The engine can not meet tough emission standard without a significant loss of fuel economy. In September, GM President Ed Cole postponed the Wankel engine, and he retired the same month. (Motor Trend, 1975) Pete Estes succeeded Ed Cole as GM President showed no interest in the Wankel and in definitely postponed introduction of the Wankel rotary engine.

Behind the Story: Why Wankel Rotary Engine Innovation Failed?


In 1968, President Nixon appointed a task force to study pollution problems and recommending appropriate action. In 1969, it was reported that no new reforms should take place, but greater effort should be made to enforce existing regulations. In July 1970, Nixon submitted to Congress his plans to enforce environmental policy. Under the Air Pollution Control Act of 1970, emissions standards for automotive exhaust were set to be reduced by 90% by the year of 1976 (Science, 1970) There is a environmental regulation that the United States Clean Air Act of 1970 in 1973 with a simple and inexpensive thermal reactor (an enlarged open chamber in the exhaust manifold) by enriching the air-fuel ratio to support complete combustion inside to deal with unburned hydrocarbons (HC). This raised fuel consumption.


At the same time, the oil Crisis of 1973 raised the price of gasoline. The Wankel engine has never reached production by the time the Pacer was to hit the showrooms. GM applied to have a year’s extension of the standards’ deadline. However, their car production lines could not be in compliance with the Act by 1975 with existing technology even though millions of research dollars had been spent. They complained that the standards were completely impractical. Wankel rotary engine had to be shelved indefinitely because it failed to meet Federal anti-pollution standards for 1975 due to the ever tightening standards of 1977. The reasons of failure were mainly attributed to the rising fuel crisis and concerns about emission legislation in the United States.

Many automakers, including Mercedes-Benz and GM, tried to commercialize the technology. Only Mazda succeeded. Its first rotary-powered production car was introduced in 1967. But the most successful was the Mazda RX- 7, which it introduced to the United States in 1978 and discontinued in 1995 because of declining sales. (Kelleher, 2004) Mazda improved the fuel efficiency of the Wankel rotary engine by 40% by the time of introduction of the RX-7 in 1978. Dose this mean that GM chose wrong Wankel? Not necessarily true. Just before Ed Cole retired from General Motors in 1974, he said in a news release, “Whatever you’ve seen or heard about the reason the GM rotary was delayed, it’s not the real reason.” Over 3 decades pasted, Ernie Brink, the former Mazda and Lexus Mechanic, explained the inherent problem of the rotary engine and came up with several solutions to improve fuel-efficient. (Autoline Network, 2012)


(Starting from 5:31 onward to end)



The Ladder of Inference: What go wrong in GM?


It can be said that the Wankel rotary engine is given to evolution, rather than revolution. Rotary engine was an innovative ideas to draw the attention of anyone, however, it can rarely succeed with only a few technocrats behind the scenes. A great invention does not promise huge financial success under the research and development laboratories and huge amount of investment. From the above story of the Wankel engine, the execute may has wishful thinking to rotary adoption in automobile industry. According to the ladder of inference, decision making and action need to be founded on reality. It was a typical mistake of making wrong assumption. The GM execute should not had jumped to a rash decision to fill a curious little market niche. The design was great, but falling in love with the great concept often does making it work. In assuming that they already knew enough about the Wankel, GM tried to make it schedule in their timetable with forecasting any unpredictable obstacles. When the press releases constantly said that the Wankel engine was going to be remarkable, the GM’s engines were struggling with problems of being delayed.  The R&D engineers worked to a deadline in order to meet to deadlines, they had to cobble up patchwork solutions to problem rather than taking the time to study the problems and produce well thought out solutions. (Ludvigsen, 1972) During the R&D work, they rejected proven material instead of less expensive one. (Hege, 2001)


Researchers said that GM might have been missing the chance and go it alone in the development process where Curtiss-Wright had already been spending huge efforts on pure research. However, it deeply rooted in the bad decision that the executives had been made. When GM publicly signed an agreement for rights to produce Wankel engines in any size, shape and number with $50 million paid and installments of $5 million each year, it seemed that they never did anything in a small way. It might be said GM is too optimistic in a sense of doing small thing in a big way. It turned out to be nightmares even under their great efforts on research and development on their own. 

PESTLE Analysis: What Factors resulted in innovation failure?


Environmental and Political Factor: For over hundred year of the Industrial Revolution, many wastes had been disposed conveniently and increasing numbers of automobiles had led to a serious air pollution problem. Especially, after World War II, the environment in the USA was becoming a big political issue. The environment in the United States was becoming a big political issue. The auto makers knew automobile gas emissions would severely affect their operations, but strict emissions regulations in the late 1960s were considered unjustifiably intrusive. GM claimed to have solved the fuel economy issue, but failed in obtaining acceptable exhaust emissions.

Legal Factor: At the time GM started the Wankel rotary engine development, local governments has began passing laws regulating the emissions of factories. And automotive exhaust became a subject of intense study for the purpose of initiating emissions standards for future cars.

Economic Factor: During the 1960s, the United States experienced its longest uninterrupted period of economic expansion in history. Then, the oil crisis of the 1970s had a tremendous political, social, and economic impact on the United States. Even though rotary engines was considered as a great innovative design that would bring to change the automobile market, the technological disadvantages of large fuel consumption failed to fulfill fuel-economy require. 

Social Factor: The GM’s move for rotary engine was seen as significant at that time because 1. It opened up the opportunities that huge investment would be spent for new machinery to build the new engine. 2. It opened up the field for new design of automobile since the Wankel need less room, shorter hoods and sloping front ends. There is no surprise that the world was overwhelmed by the high expectation of the Wankel engine at that time. However, unrealistic expectation always lead to unrealistic goal, where GM failed the innovation.

Technological Factor: From technical aspect, the failure was attributed to the shortage in new product body knowledge and inadequate collaborative development. GM probably could have saved a lot of time and money if they couldn’t go it alone in the development process where major companies like Curtiss-Wright had already been experienced so many pure research. As it was, GM’s spent less effort on research and more development. At the very beginning, the focus of GM’s rotary program was manufacture the engine rather than studying characteristics to fit into the fuel-economic political and environmental requirement. GM built the engine solely on product technological advantage as if it was a known property, without carefully considering technical synergy and environmental orientation. Hence, when problems arose, GM lacked of knowledge to solve them due to ignoring the technological disadvantages (Tab1.1) at the very beginning. 


Summary


GM's rotary engine is a good design, however as explained, the failure of GM Wankel Rotary Engine was a typical mistake of making wrong assumption. From product design to development, the company didn't understand very well about the market demand as well as the critical factors like environment and legal factor that mentioned above in the PESTLE analysis.


In addition, the failure of GM’s rotary engine was also attributed to the skyrocketing fuel price during the fuel crisis and the stringent environmental legislation at that era. Moreover, limitation on the design of rotary engine comparing with the traditional piston engine also placed some credits to lead to the failure of the engine. The intentional fuel consumption due to the greater sealing complexity led to high fuel consumption at low operating ranges. Given that the majority of vehicles which may be the target customers for rotary engine are traditional private or commercial cars, they might mainly operate at lower operating ranges unlike sports car. Hence the new design couldn't attract a surging demand. Basic economic knowledge suggests that if a product is unable to keep a sustainable demand in the market, it will be replaced or superseded by comparable product available in the market.

Market is ever changing and innovative idea is like an "engine" to keep a company moving forward. But, product without a clear target focus, just like a car without driver. If rotary engine can readjust the limitation on the design in order to fulfill the need of the majority of the target customers group, while at the same time put much emphasis on improving the research and development for the improvement in the emission problem, then it maybe able to regain the market share while at the same time complies with the relevant legislation with regard to the environmental issue.



 

References

ADPTraining (2011, February 3). MAZDA RX7 Rotary Engine, How It Works [Video file]. Retrieved from http://youtu.be/Z7kj9rOCgl

Autoline Network (2012, October 22). Rotary Engine Breakthroug? - Autoline Daily 997 [Video file]. Retrieved from http://youtu.be/GarCJ4zw_mk

Flyweightnate (2007, April 30). Wankel Engine animation [Video file]. Retrieved from http://www.youtube.be/mGOKklx2__w

Hege, J. B. (2001). The Wankel Rotary Engine: A History, McFarland & Company, Inc., Publishers.

Kelleher, J. B. (2004, September 12). Rotor-heads are wild about wankels. Retrieved March 10, 2015, from http://search.proquest.com/docview/273699346?accountid=10134

Ludvigsen, Karl (1975). GM’s Wankel: The $700 Million Miscalculation. Motor Trend, March, p. 53.

Motor Trend (1975, March). Motor Trend, 1975, v. 29, n. 3, pg. 53

SCMP (1977, April 13). GM puts brakes on US$100m engine: Detroit. South China Morning Post & the Hongkong Telegraph, p. 53.

Science (1970, July 17). Nixon Proposes NOAA and EPA. Science 169, p. 266.

Yoxon, G. , (1999). Rotary trivia: What goes round comes round. The Ottawa Citizen. Jul 16

8 則留言:

  1. Dear Team 7:

    Thank you for sharing a nice with a technique idiot!

    Not hitting the key point, collecting wrong data or wishful thinking can lead to disaster. I think that is what you want to tell the readers. Thank you.

    I have question and suggestion for you:

    Let me address the question first:

    In the third paragraph of the failure analysis, you mentioned success stories of Mazda. What did you want to inform me? Do you want to say that since there is just one company succeed in the technology, thus, it is hard for GM to make the engine?

    My suggestion is that since GM makes wrong decision in a wrong context. In the second part of failure analysis, the legal problem may be the key failure for GM. I think you can combine this part into legal analysis so the structure can be more coherent. In my opinion, you first use the ladder of inference to analysis the strategy failure of GM. Then you go to industry analysis to draw the conclusion that GM made wrong decision in the wrong context. The advantage of such structure is that inside the organization, something goes wrong in decision making. Then, you go deeper to analysis that beside internal wrong decision making, they made wrong decision externally. Do you think this structure is OK to use?

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    1. Thanks Joy for your comments. You are right, the main reason GM failed can be attributed to legal problem.Here is my question: under the same environmental factors, why Mazda succeeded and worked it out, but GM failed. I think the failure have a combination of factors, taking for internal and external sides. The ladder of inference is useful to diagnose the cause and where the wrong decision was made.

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  2. Thanks Team Innovate for your analysis on the GM’s Wankel engines. Although this topic is quite technical and scientific (usually not my cup of tea), but reading your blog has helped me to learn about the history and physics behind the Wankel rotary engines which I was not familiar before, so thank you very much as I have learned new knowledge!

    From the explanation and videos from your blog, I think the Wankel rotary engine itself is actually a very smart design. The Wankel engine's appeal is very simple and has only a handful of parts, compared with about 40 pieces in a four-cylinder piston engine. With such a good innovative design, it is quite sad that GM failed to put this innovation into success.

    From your analysis, I agree that there are many reasons (both external and internal factors) that cause the failure of GM’s rotary engines, but as you have mentioned, the main reason is probably the strategy issue, with wrong decision making by the company’s executives. This is a valuable lesson learned: choosing the wrong data and having wrong assumptions will lead to innovation failures.

    Personally, I am curious to why Mazda and GM both faced the same external factors such as environmental and legal issues, but Mazda succeeded in the commercialization of Wankel rotary engines in its automobiles while GM did not. Maybe some analysis could be done in your blog to compare the different approaches both companies have taken in the development of Wankel engines, so that your readers have a better understanding of the topic? Anyway, good job!

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    1. I tried searching and found this website http://www.mazda.com/en/innovation/rotary/newfrontier/ . Although Mazda has faced many problems throughout the development process, Mazda has never given up on the Wankel rotary engines, continuously putting a lot of research and development resources to this technology, and until now, they are still developing many new innovations from the Wankel rotary engines.
      The rotary engine has a huge potential for combining outstanding driving and environmental performance. Given its compatibility with multiple types of fuel, including hydrogen, and adaptability to power generation use, the rotary engine’s potential as an environment-friendly engine is high. Driven by Mazda’s willingness to take on challenges, the wheel of our rotary engine history will continue to turn.

      http://www.mazda.com/en/innovation/rotary/newera/

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    2. Thanks for your comments and suggestion. Agree with u. The success story of Mazda, in comparison with GM, made the argument more concrete.The more we see thing from different perspectives, the less mistakes are made, the more likely to be success. That's what we learnt from the case study.

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  3. Thanks for your sharing. I agree big data is a very helpful information which become an essential element of competitive differentiation. Like banking industry, with Big Data, it takes educated how banker to offer comprehansive banking service to itss customer so as to differentiate itself during the indurstry. So, Logisitic also can gain from Big Data support to increase its market share.

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